Foreigners Snap Up $2bn in London Property in Christmas Week

Foreign investment in the London property market has been growing for 18 months, but never so fast as in the week before Christmas. In one week alone buyers from Asia, Africa and Europe bought £1.3 billion worth of skyscrapers, upmarket clothes shops and sprawling City office developments.

The surge of demand shows that London still retains its safe haven status even as the EU crisis worsens and there was talk of British isolation.

“Buyers are aware that now is a good time to come into the London market as many sellers are distressed or concerned about the impact of the eurozone crisis on future valuations,” said James Beckham, director of capital markets at Jones Lang LaSalle, the property services group.

The purchase of Tower 42 Nathan Kirsh, the South African property tycoon, from BlackRock and Hermes Real Estate, was the biggest and most noteworthy sale of the week. The tallest occupied skyscraper in the City and former headquarters of NatWest bank went for £282.5m.

The Malaysian government's investment arm Permodalan Nasional Bhd also made the noteworthy shortlist with its £350m office complex purchase. In its UK debut PNB snapped up the 460,000 square foot Silk Street Building just down the road from Tower 42.

It is not just prime office stock that has attracted overseas interest, however. A property investment vehicle backed by Ernesto Bertarelli, the Swiss-Italian pharmaceuticals billionaire, on Wednesday announced its first investment, acquiring a 186,000 sq ft mixed-used building in Mayfair in a deal rumoured to be worth more than £100m.

US Foreclosures Fall 14% in November as Lenders Freeze Evictions for Holidays

Just as the Germans and Brits played football on the battlefields across Europe on Christmas day, the US' banks are calling ceasefire on litigious battles as they suspend evictions and foreclosure proceedings for the holiday period.

According to real estate data collection agency RealtyTrac the widespread move brought a 14% decline in the number of foreclosures last month, with 224,394 properties receiving default notices last month. The number of foreclosures also declined on a monthly basis, with 1 in 579 households receiving foreclosure notices in November, compared to 1 in 563 in October.

The firm's chief executive James Saccacio said that the eviction moratorium is partially behind the numbers:

Despite the fall in filings the number of scheduled foreclosure auctions hit a nine-month high. Saccacio explained: "[The] first quarter typically is a better buying season, so you’ll see more of this inventory try to come to market.

"I expect 2012 to look similar to 2011 in volume if nothing changes with government intervention regulations."

With 1 in 175 homes receiving foreclosure notices in November, Nevada remains the worst affected state for the 59th consecutive month. California (one in 211) came second, while Arizona was third (one in 256).

Saccacio's prediction that 2012 volumes will be largely the same as 2011 has to be looked upon as disappointing and pessimistic. For America 2012 will be almost the 7th year of housing market collapse and still we are not to see any improvement? Optimists would say that the rapid rush of auctions in Q1 combined with the foreclosure moratorium will make a big space to clear a large chunk of foreclosure inventory in Q1, setting the way for the rest of the year. Time will tell who is right.

Russian Buyers Becoming Prolific in Overseas Property

During the boom Russians became prolific in the world of overseas property, particularly in Bulgaria, Ukraine and other coastal hotspots in the region, but also in Spain and the Med. They, like buyers from almost all nationalities became rare during the financial crisis, but according to many reports they are now becoming as prolific as ever.

According to aiGroup, who surveyed Russian investors at their three property shows between September and November, 71% of Russian investors are planning to complete a purchase in the next 3-6 months.

More than two thirds of Russian overseas property exhibition visitors are looking to complete a purchase in the next three to six months. Kim Waddoup, chief executive of the group said that exhibitors at his Moscow and St Petersburg property shows reported "stronger than ever interest in their properties".

The reports are confirmed by official data, which shows a surge in capital flight out of Russia into foreign assets and investments. According to central bank chairman Sergei Ignatyev has estimated $49.3 billion has left the country in the first nine months of the year, already outstripping 2010’s figure of £35.3 billion. $13 billion of capital left Russia in September alone…70% of the third-quarter total.

Turkey is a firm favourite among the new breed of investors according to other reports. International Residence surveyed 499 Russian investors at the Moscow International Investment Show in March this year, and found Turkey to be the third most popular country among those looking to buy. Spain and Bulgaria were first and second.

Worries over China's Property Market Overshadow Economic Prospects

Worries about a slowdown in China's property market are threatening to overshadow the country's economic prospects, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

The report from the OECD stated that while the failure of small developers wouldn't pose a significant problem, this wouldn't be the case with larger developers who could put bank lending at risk. It identified a key risk as being an "overly quick liquidation of unsold property."

China is expected to see growth of 8.5% next year, even though exports will be affected by weakened demand and a decline in the nation's overall competitiveness.

According to the OECD the economy could be helped through government housing projects which would support the construction and moderate the effects of inflation, possibly allowing the government to cut interest rates from the middle of next year.

The vice premier of China, Li Keqiang has already announced the property market is entering a critical stage but feels restrictions on transactions should be maintained even though sales are declining. Latest figures show October sales fell by 25% compared to September and prices fell in 33 out of the 70 cities monitored.

The government has placed restrictions on mortgages and home purchases in around 40 cities and is also aiming to build 10 million affordable homes to boost supply. Some analysts are already predicting that falling property prices in cities such as Shanghai and Beijing could force the government to relinquish some of its hold on the property market. UBS is forecasting property prices will drop by between 10% and 15% in first tier cities in 2012 and by 5% to 10% in other cities.

US Births Hit an 11 Year Low, Affecting the Housing Market

  The birth rate in the US is at an 11 year low, and experts think decisions to delay having a family or forego having babies altogether may prolong recovery of the property market. The low birthrate will mean a lower rate of consumer spending on child related services and goods, and it's estimated the cost of having raising a child until the age of 17 is $226,920 with housing being one of the largest expenses.

Last year the number of registered births fell to 4 million which is the lowest level since 1999 as Americans worried about unemployment, falling house prices and low pay rises are lacking the confidence to plan for a new baby.

The US birthrate may not recover until 2013, and is likely to lead to slower economic growth. It’s being predicted that the employment rate will increase by 2.6% during the fourth quarter and that economic growth will be too weak in 2012 but to make much of an impact on the jobless rate.

Economists think the impact of a slowing birthrate could be huge as they point out households will choose to rent for longer periods of time, and there will be fewer people looking to move up the chain. Recently there have been signs of a pickup in the economy, and if this continues it could lessen the impact.

Consumer confidence improved in November and is at a four-month high, and retail sales increased by 0.5% last month. Claims for unemployment insurance have also dropped to their lowest level since April, which is a pretty good sign that the labour market may finally be recovering.

Hong Kong Property Market Sees Weaker Sentiment Last Month

The Hong Kong property market was a little weaker last month due to continuing problems in the Eurozone and in the global economy. In October potential homebuyers proved reluctant to commit to purchasing flats, and tighter lending conditions continue to make it more difficult to obtain mortgages.

These conditions resulted in home sales falling by 3.7% last month to reach their lowest level since February 2009. The luxury end of the market saw sales fall more steeply, as just 268 luxury homes worth more than HK$10 million were sold, a fall of 15.2% month on month.

Sellers also became more willing to listen to offers, with property being sold for an average of 10% less than the asking price. Prices of mass residential property fell by around 2% in October, but prices of luxury homes fell by just 0.5% as only homeowners short of cash were willing to sell at a discount.

Newly launched projects were received relatively well, as one developer saw 40 units sold within the first three hours of the launch.

The rental market was relatively quiet as this is the low season, and landlords were willing to negotiate on rents, with luxury rents falling by 1.9% compared to September.

Experts think the outlook for the Hong Kong property market will depend on the global economy, and the effects of the Eurozone prices have already begun to be felt as exports declined by 3% year-on-year in September, for the first time in two years. However they are predicting that any price corrections will be minimal unless the sovereign debt crisis in Europe worsens considerably.

2011 Likely to Be another Bad Year for New Homes in the US

At the start of the year there were hopes that 2011 would see the property market in the US turning around, but instead this year looks likely to be less than memorable for the construction industry.

The number of new single-family homes constructed this year is expected to be around 424,000, which is a reduction of 10% on last year and 5% on 2009 which was the worst year on record since 1959.

It was anticipated that this year would see the beginning of a slow turnaround for single family home building as this particular sector has seen heavy job losses during the last five years, but optimism has gradually faded as the economic situation failed to improve.

Nationally house prices have continued to fall, and were down by an average of 4% in August compared to August last year, according to the Standard & Poor Case Shiller index, and fear of falling prices has kept buyers away.

This year has also seen the formation of fewer new households, with levels at just a third of those seen in 2007 to 2009. Consumer confidence has plunged with people becoming more uncertain about investments.

Many experts think the number of single family home sales will increase next year, with 2013 seeing an even bigger jump, but some are questioning the need to build extra homes as the US already has an oversupply. The latest data from the Federal Reserve Board shows banks continuing to ease lending standards on all types of loans apart from those secured on real estate.