US Births Hit an 11 Year Low, Affecting the Housing Market

  The birth rate in the US is at an 11 year low, and experts think decisions to delay having a family or forego having babies altogether may prolong recovery of the property market. The low birthrate will mean a lower rate of consumer spending on child related services and goods, and it's estimated the cost of having raising a child until the age of 17 is $226,920 with housing being one of the largest expenses.

Last year the number of registered births fell to 4 million which is the lowest level since 1999 as Americans worried about unemployment, falling house prices and low pay rises are lacking the confidence to plan for a new baby.

The US birthrate may not recover until 2013, and is likely to lead to slower economic growth. It’s being predicted that the employment rate will increase by 2.6% during the fourth quarter and that economic growth will be too weak in 2012 but to make much of an impact on the jobless rate.

Economists think the impact of a slowing birthrate could be huge as they point out households will choose to rent for longer periods of time, and there will be fewer people looking to move up the chain. Recently there have been signs of a pickup in the economy, and if this continues it could lessen the impact.

Consumer confidence improved in November and is at a four-month high, and retail sales increased by 0.5% last month. Claims for unemployment insurance have also dropped to their lowest level since April, which is a pretty good sign that the labour market may finally be recovering.

Hong Kong Property Market Sees Weaker Sentiment Last Month

The Hong Kong property market was a little weaker last month due to continuing problems in the Eurozone and in the global economy. In October potential homebuyers proved reluctant to commit to purchasing flats, and tighter lending conditions continue to make it more difficult to obtain mortgages.

These conditions resulted in home sales falling by 3.7% last month to reach their lowest level since February 2009. The luxury end of the market saw sales fall more steeply, as just 268 luxury homes worth more than HK$10 million were sold, a fall of 15.2% month on month.

Sellers also became more willing to listen to offers, with property being sold for an average of 10% less than the asking price. Prices of mass residential property fell by around 2% in October, but prices of luxury homes fell by just 0.5% as only homeowners short of cash were willing to sell at a discount.

Newly launched projects were received relatively well, as one developer saw 40 units sold within the first three hours of the launch.

The rental market was relatively quiet as this is the low season, and landlords were willing to negotiate on rents, with luxury rents falling by 1.9% compared to September.

Experts think the outlook for the Hong Kong property market will depend on the global economy, and the effects of the Eurozone prices have already begun to be felt as exports declined by 3% year-on-year in September, for the first time in two years. However they are predicting that any price corrections will be minimal unless the sovereign debt crisis in Europe worsens considerably.

2011 Likely to Be another Bad Year for New Homes in the US

At the start of the year there were hopes that 2011 would see the property market in the US turning around, but instead this year looks likely to be less than memorable for the construction industry.

The number of new single-family homes constructed this year is expected to be around 424,000, which is a reduction of 10% on last year and 5% on 2009 which was the worst year on record since 1959.

It was anticipated that this year would see the beginning of a slow turnaround for single family home building as this particular sector has seen heavy job losses during the last five years, but optimism has gradually faded as the economic situation failed to improve.

Nationally house prices have continued to fall, and were down by an average of 4% in August compared to August last year, according to the Standard & Poor Case Shiller index, and fear of falling prices has kept buyers away.

This year has also seen the formation of fewer new households, with levels at just a third of those seen in 2007 to 2009. Consumer confidence has plunged with people becoming more uncertain about investments.

Many experts think the number of single family home sales will increase next year, with 2013 seeing an even bigger jump, but some are questioning the need to build extra homes as the US already has an oversupply. The latest data from the Federal Reserve Board shows banks continuing to ease lending standards on all types of loans apart from those secured on real estate.

Increasing Numbers of Hong Kong Homeowners Are Falling into Negative Equity

Increasing numbers of Hong Kong homeowners are falling into negative equity, with the estimated number of mortgages underwater rising to 1,653 at the end of the third quarter compared to just 48 three months earlier, with loans worth $528 million.

This increase provides clear evidence that prices in Hong Kong are declining, and experts expect them to fall even further, especially with the risk of a global economic slowdown. The number of home transactions has fallen for 9 straight months, and prices declined by 3% between June and August. There are grim predictions that property prices may fall by as much as 30% by 2013, and the number of loans in negative equity is now at its highest level since the second quarter of 2009. However it's nowhere near as bad as the peak of 106,000 which was reached at the end of June 2003 at the end of the six-year slump which saw property prices decline by up to two thirds.

During the past year the government has implemented a number of cooling measures in response to the public outcry over price increases of up to 70% since early 2009. It has raised the minimum deposit required on some mortgage loans and has increased land sales in an effort to ease the shortage of new apartments which has partially been caused by an increase in buyers from other parts of China. Mortgage rates have also increased five times since March. While falling into negative equity is obviously bad news for these homeowners, it is good news for others who may find property prices finally becoming within reach.

Dubai's Property Market Recovery Slowed by Global Worries and European Sovereign Debt Crisis

Dubai's property market is still looking at tough times ahead, as its recovery is being slowed down by worries over the global recovery and the European sovereign debt crisis. Property prices have already fallen by an average of 60% from their peak, and it is now estimated they will fall a further 10%. The problem is that even though sales volumes are improving, and some sectors are seeing slight increases in prices, the market is still blighted by oversupply and lack of investor interest.

Most experts see no signs of a recovery this year, although over a third expects things to improve slightly next year, while two thirds expect an improvement by 2013. It's estimated that the property market in Dubai is oversupplied by around 25%, and the property price crash here is expected to be more than double that seen in the US.

Things aren't much better in Abu Dhabi which had initially fared much better during the economic downturn but is now facing its own oversupply of homes, as around 11,000 homes are expected to enter the market by the end of next quarter, according to a report by Jones Lang LaSalle. This is expected to cause prices to fall by another 14%, which would be 60% from their peak values. It is expected that the markets in both Dubai and Abu Dhabi will continue to adjust over the short term due to difficulties in financing mortgages and increased home supplies. This is also expected to affect rents as rental costs are predicted to drop by 8% in Dubai this year and by 5% in 2012. Rents in Abu Dhabi are expected to fall by 14% this year and by 10% next year.

Russia's Property Market Still to Make a Comeback

The property market in Russia underwent a huge boom between 2000 and 2007, and prices increased by around 436%, but property prices began to weaken towards the end of 2008 and to decline during the second quarter of 2009. House prices are still declining, even though the rate is slowing.

Although prices of resale apartments increased by 3.79% to the year ending the second quarter of 2011, when adjusted for inflation prices actually declined by 5.25%. In Moscow resale apartment prices fell by 5.38% after being adjusted for inflation, but in St Petersburg prices fell by a massive 15.23% after being adjusted for inflation.

Part of the problem is that the ruble has depreciated significantly against the US dollar, and was down from RUB23.36 in July 2008 to RUB35.82 in February 2009. This massive fall meant those who had already committed to buy or rent property had to raise around 50% more cash, putting pressure on the housing market which contributed to its crash in 2009.

By July 2010 the exchange rate had recovered somewhat and stood at around RUB30.76 to 1 US dollar, and according to the IMF the ruble is undervalued by up to 21% against the dollar and by 15% against the euro, and is expected to recover over the next few months to a year.

Private ownership of property has been allowed by citizens and foreigners since 2001 and since 2006 in Moscow, but Moscow has the dubious distinction of being amongst the world's most expensive cities for expatriates to live in.

Spanish Property Prices and Sales Are Finally Increasing

According to statistics from Kyero.com, which is Spain's largest English language property website, asking prices for property in the country has increased to €266,100 during the third quarter of 2011, and it looks as if there may be a shortage of quality properties in popular regions.

The country has experienced a tourism boom, and some hotels have seen 100% occupancy during the summer months, and this has led to increased interest from second home owners looking to rent out their property for at least part of the year.

Property professionals throughout Spain have seen an increase in enquiries and inspection trips, and certain areas such as Costa Blanca, Costa Calida, Alicante and Murcia are seeing respectable price increases.

Prices in Alicante began rising at the end of last year, with the average asking price of €220,000 in December rising to €231,000 in September. The region has enjoyed substantial investment into its infrastructure, and a second airport terminal was recently opened which should help attract more visitors, especially as prices are still below the national average.

Between April and June, Alicante saw its biggest ever number of sales to foreign buyers, but Malaga still took top place. It has been nominated as a candidate for the 2016 European Capital of Culture, and if it wins this will further boost tourism numbers and property sales.

The island of Mallorca still remains popular with visitors, and the average asking price is €416,300, which is the third highest average in Spain. The Spanish government has reduced VAT on new property until the end of the year, and this is also encouraging buyers to purchase now as it can save an average of €8000 on a €200,000 home.