Friday, 10 December 2010

UK Housing Market Bottoming Out???

Oh my god, I thought I had seen it all in the press coverage of the UK housing market boom bust boom bust, but I have been proven wrong yet again.

In the This is Money publication one Adrian Lowery writes:

"House prices fell 0.7% in the three months to November compared to the same period last year, figures revealed today - the first fall on that measure since November last year. But Halifax also said prices dipped just 0.1% last month, encouraging hopes that the housing market is bottoming out."

Bottoming OUT??? How can a market that has only just started a fresh round of falls be bottoming out?

UK house prices fell sharply in 2008, but started rising in March 2009. In March 2009, after many months of falling prices totalling a decline of between 10% and 20% depending on the index, claims that the rises showed the market was bottoming out were at least plausible it not particularly well founded.

Well founded or not, fuelled by weak supply as people kept their houses off the market rather than pay the £100 required to get a HIP rise UK house prices did, and until August this year they did, again depending on the index. So now, with some indexes only registering falls for one or two months we can't say bottom out? Even if the minor falls recorded by the Halifax are the last falls we see they would only be showing that the market is levelling off, not bottoming out.

Maybe I am being a bit harsh, but I wish writers would engage their reason operators before opening their ledger.

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