The Turkish economy grew 10.3% in the year to end the second quarter of 2010, and construction grew 21.7% during the period, according to Turkstat. The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year is now 11%, and this is matched by tourism growth in the first half of the year, according to recent data from the Tourism Ministry.
This is impressive growth, but the fact that it means that the Turkish economy grew faster than Brazil (8.8%) and the same as China (10.3%), makes it all the more impressive.
It is little wonder that Standard and Poor have announced that they will upgrade Turkey's debt rating in 12-24 months -- this would give Turkey an investment grade rating. Turkey is already the only country to have been upgraded twice during the financial crisis. S&P also predicted 8% growth for the Turkish economy this year.
Unemployment is also falling, and it is the combination of falling unemployment and economic growth that is bringing reports that the Turkish economy is now well and truly out of the woods in terms of the recession.
Unemployment fell 2.6% in May, and with that the number of jobless people in Turkey fell below 3 million for the first time since August 2007 (before the crisis struck).
With so much growth, it is certainly difficult to imagine Turkey falling backwards into recession; let's face it, it has a long way to fall. What's more Turkey hasn't gone overboard with the stimulus so there is minimal risk that revocation of the stimulus could bring trouble.
I certainly don't see anything but growth in Turkey's short term future. The International Monetary Fund is predicting 5.2% growth this year and 3.4% next year. If you ask me that will prove to be a little conservative.
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